The media is now saying that it’s tax reform moving the market higher one week, or even one day, and then lower the next. That “sounds” plausible, but do you really think there are a significant number of investors sure enough about the outcome of tax reform that they’re willing to base investment decisions on their beliefs this early in the tax reform effort? Probably not investors, but possibly traders. They’re the ones operating at the marginal price.
Now the question is, are you a trader or an investor? If you’re a trader our’s is not the website for you. We don’t try to predict the daily meanderings of the markets nor do we try to assign reasons for these daily meanderings, because we don’t believe anyone can truly know why the market is moving one way or the other on a day to day basis. There are usually multiple “plausible” explanations.
What we try to do is smooth out these day to day fluctuations with our Long Term Trend view. Even then we don’t try to assign specific reasons for market movements. What we do, is to take all the information the market assimilates (i.e. the current price) and use that to determine our view.
Right now, despite troubles in the middle east, tax reform not moving as fast as hoped, and a necessary government debt extension coming within a month all our Long Term Indicators are Green (i.e. in Uptrends).
